United States trade war, India-China ties loom big at SCO top in Tianjin

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are amongst the more than 20 world leaders going to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation top, which is now the world’s biggest local grouping by population.

The Beijing-backed bloc will assemble on Sunday and Monday in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin, uniting a varied variety of power brokers from throughout Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Established by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 2001, the top has actually moved focus over the previous 20 years from Central Asian issues to international matters.

More considerably, the SCO has actually ended up being a vital part of China’s “parallel global governance architecture”, stated Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project.

As Beijing presumes the mantle of the world’s second-largest superpower, the SCO has actually produced areas for discussion and cooperation outside “the US-led global system”, Olander informed Al Jazeera

While the top in Tianjin is mainly symbolic, it is an important possibility to unite worldwide leaders and bureaucrats in an online forum where they can share “typical complaints”, Olander stated.

With the event set to be eclipsed by United States President Donald Trump’s trade war versus much of the world– consisting of numerous standard allies of Washington– guests are most likely to have much more commonalities.

Visitors vary from Putin, who is desired for war criminal offenses by the International Criminal Court, to Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko and the similarity United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

A lot of the guests likewise have longrunning competitions and border conflicts, such as India with Pakistan, India with China, Saudi Arabia with Iran, and Central Asia with both China and Russia.

“There are intricate characteristics at play here,” Olander stated.

“Underneath the delighted household picture is a great deal of examining shoulders,” he stated.

Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun, India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Iran's Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Kazakhstan's Defence Minister Dauren Kosanov, Kyrgyzstan's Defence Minister Ruslan Mukambetov, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and Russia's Defence Minister Andrei Belousov applaud following a group photo, before the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers' Meeting in Qingdao, Shandong province, China June 26, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo

Defence ministers from nations consisting of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Russia praise following a group picture, ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Defence Ministers’Meeting in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, in June 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

‘Swing states’

The SCO has actually broadened its subscription in the last few years to consist of such political heavyweights as India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus as complete members, with Afghanistan and Mongolia signing up with as observers.

Authorities “discussion partners” have actually likewise grown to 14 nations, consisting of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar, Cambodia, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

The top will likewise especially function Southeast Asia, an area that Olander compared to the “swing states” in the fantastic power competitors in between the United States and China.

5 presidents will go to from the area, consisting of Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim and Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto, along with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn.

Observers will be carefully enjoying the characteristics in between Chinese President Xi Jinping and India’s Modi, who have actually not satisfied in 7 years, stated Claus Soong, an expert at Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies who specialises in China’s worldwide method.

India has actually typically been an ally of Washington, however it was struck today by Trump’s 50 percent tariffs as penalty for its continuous purchase of Russian oil.

The White House states India’s trade is assisting to keep Russia’s economy afloat in spite of worldwide sanctions, and with it, Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The shared danger of United States tariffs has actually assisted enhance relations in between New Delhi and Beijing, which had actually plunged in 2020 over a lethal skirmish in between border forces in the Himalayas.

The 2 sides reached an offer on their remote frontier in 2024, however their relationship has actually stayed wintry.

Experts state China sees Trump’s trade war as a possibility to relieve India far from US-led political and military blocs such as the QUAD, a tactical security online forum that consists of Japan and Australia in addition to India and the United States.

“The secret is to take a look at how China [characterises] its relationship with India after the see and how the relationship enhances in between China and India,” Soong informed Al Jazeera.

Even subtle modifications in language by Beijing bring essential diplomatic signals, he stated.

The SCO top will likewise mark the very first conference in between Putin and Xi because the Russian leader consulted with President Trump in Alaska previously this month to talk about the Ukraine war.

Experts will be listening for comparable modifications in language for how the 2 leaders explain the China-Russia relationship.

In 2022, simply weeks before Moscow attacked Ukraine, China and Russia signed a “no limitations collaboration”, and Xi has actually played an essential function in propping up Russia’s economy ever since.

This is a point of contention for New Delhi, as China has actually done much more to support Russia financially considering that the war began, however has actually not dealt with comparable sanctions from Trump.

With numerous characteristics at play behind the scenes, Daniel Balazs, a research study fellow at the China Programme at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, stated the most likely result of the SCO will be a joint declaration from all guests.

China and Russia are anticipated to press talking points such as their opposition to “unilateralism”– a coded referral to the United States– however the majority of the language will be thinned down to make it tasty to all.

“The meaning of in fact accomplishing a joint declaration is more crucial than the material of the declaration itself,” Balazs stated.

“What I would anticipate is to have a declaration which is an extremely non-controversial one, in order to get everyone on board,” he stated.

“Security and stability, remarks about enhancing financial cooperation, and a number of remarks about the significance of multilateralism,” Balazs stated.

Police officers stand guard in front of the Tiananmen Gate, in an area temporarily closed to visitors due to construction, in advance of a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, on August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

< figure id ="attachment_3915233" aria-describedby ="caption-attachment-3915233"> < img data-recalc-dims ="1"loading ="lazy"src ="http://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-25T084236Z_2025718761_RC2WAGAF3U1R_RTRMADP_3_WW2-ANNIVERSARY-CHINA-ARMS-1756523046.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80"alt ="Police officers stand guard in front of the Tiananmen Gate, in an area temporarily closed to visitors due to construction, in advance of a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, on August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]"fetchpriority ="low"> Police officers stand guard in front of the Tiananmen Gate, in a location briefly near visitors due to building, in advance of a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of completion of World War II, in Beijing, China, on August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

Policemans stand guard in front of the Tiananmen Gate, in a location briefly near to visitors due to building, in advance of a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of completion of World War II, in Beijing, China, on August 20, 2025 [Florence Lo/Reuters]

Following the top, visitors will have a complete day in China before taking a trip to Beijing for a huge military parade on September 3 marking 80 years considering that completion of World War II in Asia.

That additional day– September 2– will be prime-time show for bilateral conferences, the China-Global South Project’s Olander stated.

“Who will fulfill who on the second of September– that’s something to focus on,” he stated.

More presidents are because of participate in the parade the next day, with additions stated to consist of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.

India’s Modi is not anticipated to remain for the parade, although experts state he might send out an agent, such as his foreign minister.

The Mercator Institute’s Soong stated the extensive visitor list for the top and the military parade will offer Beijing an increase to its public image, specifically amongst the Global South.

“This is how China shows its pal circle– who can be China’s pal and who wants to back China’s story,” he stated.