Corbin Advisors, a strategic investor relations and communications advisory firm with a track record of supporting publicly traded clients in creating sustained shareholder value, today released its quarterly Earnings Primer®, which captures trends in institutional investor sentiment. The survey, which marks the 66th quarterly issue of Inside The Buy-Side® Earnings Primer®, was conducted from March 5 to April 1, 2026, and is based on responses from 70 institutional investors representing ~$4.3 trillion in equity assets under management and sell-side analysts globally.
Following last quarter’s survey, which found resilient optimism buoyed by lower interest rate expectations, growth resilience, OBBBA benefits, and AI-driven productivity gains somewhat tempered by concerns about frothy valuations, policy impact, and geopolitics, the Voice of Investor® captured this quarter reveals a sharp reversal in positive sentiment amid Iran War fallout, largely higher inflation and further pressure on the consumer. Sentiment marks the largest quarter-over-quarter pullback in bullishness since tariffs were announced in April 2025, but remains more upbeat than views registered at that time.
Indeed, 35% of surveyed investors characterize sentiment as Neutral to Bullish or Bullish, a significant pullback from 50% last quarter, with 41% Neutral to Bearish to Bearish, up from 23%. Meanwhile, executive tone characterized as Neutral to Bullish or Bullish falls to 41% from 66% last survey, while those perceiving management as Neutral to Bearish or Bearish more than doubles to 26%. The pullback marks the end of three consecutive quarters of perceived growing executive optimism.
Rebecca Corbin, Founder and CEO of Corbin Advisors, commented, “Predictably, we captured a meaningful stepdown in investor sentiment this survey as Iran War-related uncertainty weighs heavily on confidence. Importantly, while the decline is sharp on a sequential basis, it remains less severe than the levels we saw following both the 2025 tariff announcement and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, indicating a recalibration rather than a full risk-off response.”
Ms. Corbin continued, “Against this backdrop, investors continue to characterize the underlying economy as solid and more expect companies will maintain 2026 guides, but around the edges, conviction is being challenged. War-related fallout is largely unknown at this time with our channel checks indicating tangible impacts beginning in late March. This earnings period, executives will have the unenviable responsibility of qualifying and quantifying real and future effects on the trajectory of growth and margin while the situation remains fluid despite the two-week ceasefire. Similar to other Black Swan events, management teams will be expected to frame the environment relative to their business, provide assumptions, and layout scenario analyses. Managing investor expectations by acknowledging uncertainty and reinforcing self-help initiatives are critical to sustaining confidence in the quarter ahead.”
As for Q1’26 expectations, 44% expect earnings to come In Line with consensus, while 39% anticipate Better Than results and 17% expect results to be Worse Than consensus, reflecting a four-fold increase sequentially. Regarding KPIs, Revenue, EPS, and FCF are anticipated to Improve sequentially, but at lower support levels than captured last quarter. Notably, all measures see an increase in Worsening expectations, particularly Margins, with 36% of investors now expecting a decline amid heightened inflation.
Continuing, 2026 annual guides are seen as “too early” to be changed, despite the uncertain backdrop, with more anticipating companies to Maintain outlooks.
“If you had asked me before this Middle East conflict, I would say generally it is pretty positive. ISM was trending better. Companies are feeling pretty good about 2026. Order trends had been good coming out of Q4, but now there is this whole new level of uncertainty. It is generally pretty favorable, but that could be changing,” commented a buy side analyst whose firm manages over $100 billion in equity assets.
Turning to economic views, while investors have conviction in the underlying strength of the economy, 45% expect 2026 U.S. GDP growth will Worsen over the next six months, while 50% now expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession, up from 35% last quarter. After three consecutive quarters of increasing support for growth, this survey finds more, 55%, taking a defensive approach and prioritizing margins. To that end, respondents cite the Iran War and related headwinds – higher inflation, including energy prices, and the impact on the consumer – as top concerns.
For upcoming earnings calls, AI still leads the list of topics of interest, with investors seeking details on use cases, capex levels, and returns, followed by first and second order effects from the Iran War, and rounded out by consumer behavior. Notably, 82% of respondents consider a company’s AI strategy an important consideration to their investment selection process.
Reinvestment remains the top preferred use of cash at 50%, down from 61% last quarter, reflecting a conservative tilt, further underscored by an increase in those favoring Dividend Growth and Dry Powder, which both saw double-digit increases. Share Buybacks, which have been supported at levels north of 40% for the last three quarters, fell to just over 30%, underscoring that even at these dislocated levels, there remains risk.
Turning to leverage ratios, 70% remain in steadfast support of Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratios of 2.0x or lower, underscoring the Street’s unwavering focus on balance sheet discipline. Amid heightened opacity and expectations for higher inflation, investor support for bolt-on acquisitions, while still notable at 57%, saw a pullback from 71% last quarter. Large deals continue to remain out of favor.
With regard to global views, Brazil vaults to the top of regional investor outlooks over the next six months, followed by Canada and the former top pick, India. Notably, regions with the largest quarter-over-quarter increases in investor sentiment are net oil exporters, while net oil importers saw the largest declines in outlooks. As for sectors, not surprisingly, Energy saw the highest Bullish sentiment for the sector in survey history, while Consumer Discretionary saw a two-fold increase in the bears.
