What is at stake for Hamas as its arbitrator collects for talks with Israel and United States in Egypt?

As settlements in between Israel and Hamas resume in Egypt, all eyes are on Khalil al-Hayya– the male leading the Palestinian group’s delegation in talks that might identify the future of Gaza.

The conversations, which start today, mark the most severe diplomatic engagement in between the 2 sides in more than 2 years of dispute, raising hopes of a ceasefire and an extensive hostage-prisoner exchange.

These talks are being kept in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh, with mediation efforts led collectively by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.

The Donald Trump-led United States has actually taken an abnormally direct function in pressing both sides towards a contract that might end the battling and set the structure for a post-war Gaza.

Who are the individuals at the Sharm el-Sheikh settlements?

According to main statements, Hamas’s delegation to Egypt is headed by Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the group’s political bureau and among its most popular making it through figures.

Al-Hayya got here in Egypt on Sunday, leading a group of mediators to”start conversations on systems for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of profession forces and a detainee exchange,”according to a declaration launched by Hamas.

The conferences arranged for Monday are al-Hayya’s very first official engagement given that Israel carried out an airstrike in Doha, Qatar, in September, which targeted senior Hamas authorities.

That strike eliminated 6 individuals, consisting of al-Hayya’s kid, however stopped working to get rid of the management core.

Hamas later on verified that al-Hayya and a number of others endured. In his very first televised look because that attack, broadcast from Qatar previously on Sunday, al-Hayya revealed sorrow over the loss of his kid and others however made no reference of the upcoming talks or the possibility of a ceasefire.

Israel, for its part, revealed that its delegation would be led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dermer and his group are entrusted with working out the preliminary stage of what Washington has actually called a “detailed roadmap” towards ending hostilities in Gaza.

Representing the United States are Trump’s son-in-law and previous White House advisor Jared Kushner, along with unique envoy Steve Witkoff, reported AFP

Both were dispatched to the area to settle information of a prospective offer that would see the release of all staying captives kept in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian detainees in Israeli custody.

Qatar, an essential local arbitrator, has actually likewise sent its foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, to take part in the conversations.

How is Trump associated with the Gaza ceasefire talks?

The settlements in Egypt are being carefully formed by United States President Donald Trump, who has actually taken individual ownership of the peace effort.

Trump, who revealed on Saturday that talks were “continuing quickly,” composed on Truth Social, “These talks have actually been really effective, and continuing quickly. The technical groups will once again fulfill Monday, in Egypt, to overcome and clarify the last information. I am informed that the very first stage needs to be finished today, and I am asking everybody to MOVE FAST.”

A day previously, he had actually cautioned Hamas to reach an arrangement quickly, stating, “Hamas should move rapidly, otherwise all bets will be off. I will not endure hold-up, which lots of believe will occur, or any result where Gaza presents a risk once again. Let’s get this done, FAST.”

Trump likewise acknowledged that “Israel has momentarily stopped the battle in order to offer the Hostage release and Peace Deal an opportunity to be finished.”

Gaza’s civil defence company reported ongoing airstrikes overnight, with at least 57 individuals eliminated, consisting of 40 in Gaza City alone.

The White House later on verified that Kushner and Witkoff’s journey to the area was straight bought by the president to “resolve the finalisation of information on the release of captives and to go over the offer pressed by the United States president to bring an end to the dispute in between Israel and Hamas.”

Both Hamas and Israel have actually suggested initial approval of the US-drafted structure, which looks for to end the war and develop conditions for long-lasting stability in Gaza.

The strategy represents a 20-point proposition created under Trump’s instruction, and it sets out a series of actions that would start with an exchange of slaves and culminate in a ceasefire and restoration stage.

What we understand about Trump’s 20-point proposition?

The proposition, shared by the White House, details a phased procedure under which the Gaza Strip would end up being a “deradicalised terror-free zone” and would be reconstructed to serve the requirements of its civilian population.

It assures an instant stop to hostilities once both sides officially consent to its terms.

Under this structure, Israeli forces would withdraw to designated lines while all fight operations, consisting of air and weapons strikes, would be suspended.

The file defines that “fight lines will stay frozen till conditions are fulfilled for the total staged withdrawal.”

The very first phase would include the release of captives kept in Gaza, both living and deceased. Within 72 hours of Israel’s public approval of the arrangement, all captives would be returned.

In return, Israel would launch 250 detainees serving life sentences and an extra 1,700 Palestinians apprehended after the October 7, 2023, attacks– consisting of all females and kids.

For every single Israeli captive whose remains are returned, the strategy specifies that Israel will launch the remains of 15 Gazans.

As soon as the exchanges are finished, members of Hamas who devote to serene coexistence and accept decommission their weapons would be approved amnesty. Those wanting to leave Gaza would be permitted safe passage to other nations going to get them.

The strategy likewise prioritises the instant circulation of humanitarian help into Gaza, defining that help amounts need to match or surpass the levels developed in the January 19, 2025 contract.

These consist of the repair of vital facilities such as electrical power, water, and sewer system, in addition to the rehab of medical facilities and bakeshops and the elimination of debris obstructing significant roadways.

Gaza’s governance would shift to a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” charged with handling local services and public administration.

The file clarifies that “nobody will be required to leave Gaza,” guaranteeing liberty of motion for locals who want to remain or return.

Israel, under the contract, would not inhabit or annex the area.

What may be the points of contention?

In spite of Hamas’s public indicator of assistance for a number of elements of the proposition– consisting of the release of all captives and the transfer of Gaza’s administration to a neutral technocratic body– it has actually not yet dedicated to the most controversial need: disarmament.

Israel has actually made it clear that any last contract need to consist of a total decommissioning of Hamas’s military abilities.

Hamas, in its main declaration, stated that conversations worrying the “future of Gaza and the rights of the Palestinian individuals” are still in progress “within a nationwide structure,” suggesting that the group means to stay involved in forming the area’s political trajectory.

The 2nd stage of the settlements, anticipated to follow the preliminary exchanges, will take on these unsettled problems. These consist of the disarmament concern, security warranties for Israel, and systems to avoid a resumption of hostilities.

Experts keep in mind that the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh represent the very first substantial opening for diplomacy in over 2 years of war.

The intricacy of the concerns and the enduring skepticism in between the celebrations recommend that development, even if swift in the brief term, will be hard to sustain without ongoing worldwide mediation.

What is at stake for Hamas?

Hamas goes into these settlements under significant stress. When the dominant force in Gaza, the group has actually seen its military and political wings annihilated after continual Israeli operations.

According to intelligence evaluations mentioned by local authorities, much of Hamas’s senior command in the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades– its military arm– has actually been removed.

Izz al-Din al-Haddad, who now leads the Brigades, is thought to have actually prospered Mohammed Sinwar, sibling of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attacks.

Both Sinwar siblings were eliminated in Israeli strikes previously this year.

Politicians such as Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh al-Arouri have actually likewise been eliminated, leaving just a few senior figures like al-Hayya to handle what stays of the organisation’s political management.

Conditions in Gaza have actually degraded to disastrous levels. Regional health authorities report that more than 67,000 individuals have actually been eliminated and 169,000 hurt given that the war started.

Over 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.2 million homeowners have actually been displaced numerous times, with numerous now residing in makeshift shelters or camping tents. Reports from humanitarian firms explain prevalent starvation and crucial scarcities of medication, food, and tidy water.

Hamas’s territorial control has actually likewise worn down, with Israeli forces keeping positions throughout much of northern and main Gaza. In numerous locations, regional Palestinian militias and clans, apparently motivated by Israeli intelligence, have actually presumed minimal administrative obligations.

These advancements have actually caused increasing friction in between Hamas fighters and other Palestinian groups, leading to intra-factional clashes and additional loss of public self-confidence.

The group’s internal security device has actually likewise been linked in arrests, executions, and abuse of Palestinians implicated of working together with Israel, adding to what observers refer to as a breakdown of order in the enclave.

According to a public viewpoint survey carried out in May 2025, approximately half of Gaza’s population revealed assistance for anti-Hamas presentations.

Professionals on Palestinian politics have actually kept in mind that, provided its present state of exhaustion, Hamas might have little option however to progress into a simply political entity if it wishes to endure.

Nations such as Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt are anticipated to play crucial functions in helping with any ideological or structural change Hamas might go through.

Its enduring Islamist ideology, rooted in rejection of Israel’s authenticity, stays a substantial barrier to such modification.

What next?

The result of the Sharm el-Sheikh settlements brings ramifications that extend well beyond Gaza.

For the United States, success would represent a significant diplomatic triumph for Trump, who has actually personally invested political capital at the same time.

For Israel, the talks use a path to protect the release of captives while preserving long-lasting security guarantees.

Netanyahu’s federal government has actually dealt with domestic and global criticism for its handling of the dispute, and any advancement might strengthen his standing.

The Israeli prime minister likewise deals with scepticism at home from hardliners who oppose concessions viewed as legitimizing Hamas.

For Hamas, the settlements might represent a last chance to protect significance in Gaza’s post-war future.

Approval of a ceasefire, a detainee exchange, and administrative handover to a technocratic body might make it possible for the organisation to rearrange itself politically, albeit at the expense of deserting its function as an armed resistance motion.

With inputs from companies