Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak AMC, says India faces a significant trade deficit, second only to America, exceeding $250 billion. The focus should be on leveraging this deficit to redirect exports and utilize spending on travel and education to open up markets. Stimulating the domestic economy through tax cuts, GST rationalization, and ease of doing business is crucial, alongside achieving self-reliance in technology and R&D.
I guess it is now over to Trump, Putin, the US delegation which is going to visit India month-end and eventually, the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Putin later in the year?
Nilesh Shah: There will be lots of events and markets will move in line with them. But as things stand today, at a 50% tariff, it is a trade embargo. Our companies in sectors like textiles, chemicals, auto components, and aquaculture will have to find markets other than American markets. I just hope and pray that India leverages its own trade position.
After America, the second largest goods deficit in the world is from India. We have more than $250 billion plus trade deficit. By giving access to our domestic market, we should seek opening up of local markets for Indian products and we must support companies in this sector so that they can survive this 50% tariff imposition. At the same time, all the events which you mention obviously shows that the government is trying to work around it. Let us hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
How do you prepare for the worst and what could that worst be? We are already grappling with a 50% tariff and clearly there are a lot of concerns around exporters, textile, leather goods, etc. From a market standpoint, what could be the worst because here is an index which is now in the sixth consecutive week of decline. We have had a rough patch with the FII selling India all through July and it has not got any better. The index has declined 5%.
Nilesh Shah: As Peshwa Bajirao mentioned, strike at the root of the tree and branches will fall. Let us focus on the economy. The market will take care of itself. FPIs also will be taken care of by focusing on the economy. In the economy, we have to ensure that we leverage the second largest trade deficit in the world of more than $250 billion plus to ensure that we can divert our exports from goods where America is levying tariffs to other countries.
When you run a $250 billion plus deficit, it should be possible. Second, we are also one of the largest spenders of travel and education. 1.7 million Indians travelled to America. 2.6 crore people travelled abroad. We need to leverage our spending on travel, on education, on goods deficit, on giving access to American companies in the Indian market for opening up markets for our exports.
The second obviously is to stimulate our domestic economy. The government has taken steps through income tax cuts. There is potential GST rationalisation as well as petrol-diesel price cuts are probably on the anvil. There is the 8th Pay Commission and there is also a reduction in interest rates. Now we must accelerate the ease of doing business so that the domestic economy is stipulated.
Yesterday as the prime minister mentioned in Bangalore, we must focus on creating independence in technology. Today we are dependent on the world for R&D and innovation. We must ensure that we become atmanirbhar in R&D and in technology. It is not going to happen in a hurry, but we must have a road map. If we take care of the economy which is the root cause of everything, then markets and FPIs will be taken care of on its own.
But in the long run, earnings will be expected to drive the stock performance and will need to be backed by the growth of the economy and maybe outperforming that. As we are at the fag end of the earnings season, which are some of the sectors where you believe the outperformance continues or are expected to outperform. What are your sector bets as of now?
Nilesh Shah: While conventional wisdom suggests that stocks are slaves of earning power, do remember that returns are also based on valuation. You could see 100% earnings growth and valuation derating will generate no return. So, we must ensure that not only our earnings grow but our premium valuation, which is one of the highest in emerging markets, continues to sustain. If earnings grow and valuation gets derated, then there will be no return for investors.
At this point of time, the June 25 quarterly results are more or less in line with the expectation. Of course, from double digit earnings growth, it has come down to high single digit. But 7-8% earnings growth is not bad. Within overall earnings growth for the market, there are sectors which have done well. There are sectors that have disappointed. But FY26 is a year of consolidation. We should be looking at earnings of Nifty EPS somewhere around Rs 1,100 to Rs 1,125.
Can in the second half, monsoon and consumption boost be revived? As of today, we have not heard that in commentary from corporates, but who knows, the festival season can bring cheer. The focus will be on FY27 earnings that can move into double digit and a lot will depend upon how the situation evolves.
