In an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, energy independence has become a strategic necessity for India. As Anil Agarwal in his recent tweet said, “India is vulnerable because we import 90% of our oil and gas”, despite being surrounded by sea on three sides that “can be blockaded in hostile times.” With India poised to remain the world’s fastest-growing oil and gas market for at least the next two decades, domestic production is no longer optional it is critical.
India’s advantage lies beneath its soil. The country is endowed with 300 billion barrels equivalent of hydrocarbon resources, “more than 30 times Guyana’s potential.” Coupled with this is India’s global talent strength, “across the world, 10% of experts in this industry are Indians.” The missing link, however, is large-scale exploration. “Exploration is the core of this business,” Agarwal emphasises, pointing to the US example where opening up exploration to entrepreneurs transformed the country from import dependence to self-sufficiency.
Drawing from his 15-year experience, Agarwal underscores that India can produce hydrocarbons at half the cost of imports, while the sector has already “contributed $40 billion to the exchequer” and delivered 1.3 billion barrels through Cairn. Yet, unlike other sectors, “this sector has no government protection or incentive like PLI.”
A key concern remains regulatory uncertainty. “Today, there are hardly 20 active licences in India when there should be 2,000,” he says, warning that fear of “processes, notices, court cases and taking away the licenses” deters global investors. Using a powerful analogy, he recalls how “one incident” at Bharatpur’s bird sanctuary caused birds to stop returning illustrating how fragile investor confidence can be.
Agarwal is clear-eyed about global realities: “The world doesn’t want India to produce. It only wants India to be a market.” Yet history proves otherwise. Just as India moved from food imports to self-sufficiency, “it all happened because the government created a movement.” The same resolve is now needed for energy.
With the Government encouraging growth and investment, Vedanta has set its ambition to increase production five times, while “for India, production must grow ten times to meet future needs.” His vision is bold and inclusive: “thousands of drilling rigs operating across the country,” with startups and small entrepreneurs participating through investments of around ₹5 crore. The message is unequivocal, “this is the right time to shift from heavy regulation to facilitation.” India’s journey to energy independence may be long, but as Agarwal concludes, “our potential is extraordinary.”
