When Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu purchased today’s tried assassination of Hamas leaders in Qatar, he took a significant gamble in his project to pound the group into submission.
With indications growing that the objective stopped working, that gamble appears to have actually backfired.
Netanyahu had actually wished to eliminate Hamas’ senior banished leaders to get closer towards his vision of “overall triumph” versus the militant group that assaulted Israel on October 7, 2023, and pressure it into giving up after almost 2 years of war in the Gaza Strip.
Rather, Hamas declares its leaders endured, and Netanyahu’s international standing, currently severely harmed by the scenes of damage and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, took another hit.
The airstrike Tuesday has actually infuriated Qatar, a prominent United States ally that has actually been a crucial arbitrator throughout the war, and drawn heavy criticism throughout the Arab world. It has likewise stretched relations with the White House and tossed hopes of reaching a ceasefire into chaos, possibly threatening the 20 captives still thought to be alive in Gaza.
While the strike marks a problem for Netanyahu, the Israeli leader reveals no indication of backing down or stopping the war. And with his hard-line union still strongly behind him, Netanyahu deals with no instant danger to his guideline.
Netanyahu’s expect a picture of triumph for his federal government
5 low-level Hamas members and a Qatari security personnel were eliminated in the strike. Hamas has stated the designated target, senior banished leaders fulfilling to go over a brand-new United States ceasefire proposition, all made it through. The group, nevertheless, has actually not launched any images of the leaders, and Qatar has actually not discussed their conditions.
If the airstrike had actually eliminated the leading management, the attack might have supplied Netanyahu a chance state Hamas’ damage, stated Harel Chorev, a professional on Arab affairs at Tel Aviv University.
“It’s all really symbolic and it’s certainly part of the important things which enables Netanyahu at a particular indicate state We won, we eliminated them all,'” he stated.
Israel’s intense 23-month offensive in Gaza has actually erased all of Hamas’ leading management inside the area. Netanyahu has actually set out to eliminate the group as part of his objective of “overall success.”
That is now looking significantly not likely, making it even harder for Netanyahu to press a ceasefire through his hard-line union.
Reactionary members of Israel’s governing union have actually cornered Netanyahu, threatening to fall his federal government unless Israel presses ahead with a broadened operation in Gaza City, regardless of major misgivings by numerous in the military management and prevalent opposition amongst Israel’s public.
An effective operation in Qatar might have enabled Netanyahu to pacify the hard-liners, although it would have removed the very authorities accountable for working out a possible ceasefire.
Burning the channel with Qatar
Israel has had the capability to target Hamas leaders in Doha from the start of the war, however did not wish to antagonise the Qataris while settlements occurred, Chorev stated.
Qatar has actually assisted work out 2 previous ceasefires that have actually launched 148 captives, consisting of 8 bodies, in exchange for countless Palestinian detainees. Israel’s armed force has actually saved simply 8 captives alive, and obtained the bodies of 51 captives.
While Israel has actually grumbled that Qatar was not putting pressure on Hamas, it had actually continued to leave that channel open– till Tuesday.
“Israel, by the attack, informed the entire world that it quit on the settlements,” Chorev stated. “They’ve chosen to burn the channel with Qatar.”
Asked if ceasefire talks would continue, Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that after the strike, “I don’t think there’s anything valid” in the current talks. But he did not elaborate and stopped short of saying Qatar would end its mediation efforts.
How Netanyahu hopes to win the release of the remaining hostages remains unclear.
On Thursday, Sheikh Mohammed accused Israel of abandoning the hostages.
“Extremists that rule Israel today do not care about the hostages — otherwise, how do we justify the timing of this attack?” Sheikh Mohammed told the UN Security Council.
Nonetheless, he said his country was ready to resume its mediation without giving any indication of next steps. On Friday, Sheikh Mohammed met in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was scheduled to visit Israel this weekend in a sign of how the Trump administration is trying to balance relations between key Middle East allies.
Straining ties with the US
Netanyahu, who has received ironclad support from the US since President Donald Trump returned to office, appears to have strained ties with his most important ally.
Trump said he was “very unhappy” about the airstrike and assured the Qataris such an attack would not happen again.
Trump, however, has not said whether he would take any punitive action against Israel or indicated that he will pressure Netanyahu to halt the war.
Netanyahu, in the meantime, remains undeterred and threatened additional action if Qatar continues to host the Hamas leadership.
The message to Hamas is clear, he said Thursday: “There is no place where we cannot reach you.”
Little impact on the war in Gaza
Israel is pressing ahead with its expanded offensive aimed at conquering Gaza City. The military has urged a full evacuation of the area holding around 1 million people ahead of an expected invasion.
“Netanyahu’s government is adamant to go on with the military operation in Gaza,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
Israel has brushed off calls to halt the war from the United Nations, the European Union and a growing number of major Western countries who plan to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN Security Council later this month, she said.
The only one who might be able to change this trajectory is Trump, she added, by telling Israel “enough is enough”.
Netanyahu’s political future unthreatened
If Hamas’ leaders survived, and the negotiations collapse, Netanyahu will further alienate the roughly two-thirds of the Israeli public who want an end to the war and a deal to bring home the hostages.
But that opposition has been in place for months, with little influence on Netanyahu.
“Netanyahu’s future in the near term doesn’t depend on the Israeli public,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.
Instead, his political survival depends on his governing coalition, many of whom have expressed wholehearted support for the assassination attempt.
This has sparked panic and more suffering for the families of the hostages still held in Gaza.
Einav Zangauker, whose son, Matan, is among the captives, said this week she was “shaking with fear” after hearing about Israel’s attack in Doha.
“Why does the prime minister insist on blowing up every chance for a deal?” she asked, on the verge of tears. “Why?”
Released on September 13, 2025
