Foster City, CA – HSH.com has updated its “Home Price Recovery Index,” showing that three additional markets have attained or surpassed boom-era peaks for home prices.
HSH.com’s “Home Price Recovery Index” uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home Price Index as a basis to determine which housing markets have fully recovered (or more) any loss in value from the housing market bust of the past decade and the first part of this one. The update covers home values in the largest 100 metropolitan areas from 1991 to the third quarter of 2018.
With this update, 3 new markets join the ranks of those that have recovered:
• Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL
Today, 73 of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas have returned to or surpassed boom-era peaks for home values; three years ago this number was only 39.
Areas that have recovered the most: % above previous price peak
1. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO: 87.88%
2. Austin-Round Rock, TX: 72.55%
3. San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA : 68.90%
Areas with largest lingering recovery gaps: % needed to regain peak
1. Bakersfield, CA: 27.49%
2. New Haven-Milford, CT: 19.51%
3. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL: 18.91%
It is important to note that many markets have seen significant price recoveries since hitting their bottom values but that many have still not attained full recovery of lost value. In fact, there are four metros areas where this is the case despite a doubling of “bust era” bottom home values, and two remain in the group with the largest value gap yet to close.
Homeowners interested in seeing how their home’s value has changed over time are encouraged to use HSH.com’s free “Home Value Estimator”. This tool allows users to select their market from 100 metropolitan areas and enter the time period that they’ve owned their home; the tool reveals changes in the home’s value during this ownership period and provides a current estimate based on home price trends in the selected metro area. Important takeaways
– Closing the price gap. The Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise (NV) metro has seen home prices rise strongly enough to move it out of the group of 10 markets with the largest gap to overcome. Prices in this metro have risen by 114.5% from 2012 bottoms and are within 10 percent of full recovery. This is a market in one of the so-called “sand states” that was among the hardest hit in the downturn; the area’s decline in home values from a 2006 peak was more than 62%.
– Largest price gains. At the other end of the spectrum, the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (CA) metro nudged its way into the 10 markets that have seen the greatest price gains since the last downturn. This market is known for being notoriously pricey – the median home price in the third quarter was $1,300,000 – but this metro also suffered a 31% peak-to-trough decline in home prices and has stormed back after bottoming in the first quarter of 2009.
– Almost recovered. Four more markets moved into our “nearly recovered” group, where values are within a percentage point or two of previous highs. These include metros in California, Texas, Florida and New Mexico. Reports that home price gains have started to cool may make it more difficult for the remaining 27 markets to reach recovery, with some estimated to need another 5 years to recover even if today’s solid price increases should persist.
– Homeowners benefit. Even as they challenge homebuyers, rising prices continue to improve the fortunes of homeowners. Double-digit increases in annual values were seen in eight metros and there were a sizable number of markets with high single-digit gains as well. In some markets, improvement is more dramatic than others but home prices continue to firm up measurably almost everywhere.
For more information, visit: https://www.hsh.com/finance/real-estate/home-price-recovery.html
