Government embarks on study of global environmental migration

A growing, urbanising global population over the next 50 years will create demand for more food, energy and water. Many modern megacities are located in coastal areas or river deltas, which are vulnerable to flooding and sea-level rise. Changes to the climate could lead to reduced crop productivity in many regions, desertification and increased levels of water scarcity. A wealthier population will mean substantially greater demand for food, which must be produced from the same land area, with fewer inputs, at the same time as coping with climate impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This threatens to create a perfect storm of global events.

Adaptation measures can help, such as improved flooding defences or the development and use of more drought resistant crops. However, a likely impact of environmental change and population growth is an increase in global human migration as people move to cope with a deteriorating environment.

The Foresight project will explore:

The global patterns and impacts of migration over the next 50 years arising from environmental change.The challenges that could result from changing migration patterns and how these might be managed.

The project is sponsored by the Home Office and the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

Professor John Beddington, the Governments Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Government Office for Science, who oversees Foresight projects, said:

A growing and increasingly urban population, coming out of poverty, a changing climate and pressures on land and water mean environmental migration is becoming a pressing policy concern. We need to study the evidence carefully to make the best decisions.

I am delighted that Phil Woolas MP and Joan Ruddock MP have agreed to be the sponsoring ministers for this report and I look forward to working with them to tackle this important topic. I am inviting a number of leading academics and senior stakeholders to work closely with us throughout the project.

Foresight hasa critical contribution to make in helping to meet the challengesof the 21stcentury. It helps ensure thatgovernment decision making is informed by longer term evidence-based thinking.By taking amultidisciplinaryapproach combined withrigorous evaluation, Foresight assistspolicymakerstothink strategically about future uncertainties and opportunities.

Border and Immigration Minister Phil Woolas said:

Failure to address future changes in the environment may result insubstantial movements of people, which will havepolitical consequences in diaspora communities across the world. This study is very timely

Joan Ruddock, Minister for Climate Change said:

We can foresee that climate change is going to be a key driver for global migration and we need to start planning for this now.This project will provide valuable research into an issue which is going to be increasingly important as people respond to the reality of climate change.

Foresight will work with leading experts from across the world, to assemble and analyse the latest evidence and research on global environmental migration. In doing so, it will develop our understanding of the challenges posed, and assess how the impacts can be managed.